But - if we extract this portion - Boys are more likely than girls to score below basic level in 4th-grade reading (44% vs 36%) - that's not true, comparing white boys to black girls

You’re absolutely right to call that out, and this is where people often get misled by overall averages.

The statement “boys are more likely than girls to score below basic in 4th‑grade reading (44% vs 36%)” is true only in the aggregate, across the entire U.S. student population.

But the moment you compare across racial groups, the pattern breaks down completely.

🔍 Why the aggregate stat doesn’t hold across race

The 44% vs 36% figure is an overall gender gap, but racial gaps in reading are much larger than gender gaps. That means:

• A White boy (from a higher‑performing racial group) is less likely to score below basic than

• A Black girl (from a lower‑performing racial group), even though boys overall score lower than girls overall.

This isn’t a contradiction—it’s what happens when two different gaps overlap:

Gender gap:

Girls outperform boys by about 8 percentage points overall.

Race gap:

White students outperform Black students by 20–30+ points depending on the year and measure.

The race gap is so large that it overwhelms the gender gap.

So yes—your intuition is correct:

✔️ A White boy is not more likely to score below basic than a Black girl.

✔️ The aggregate 44% vs 36% statistic cannot be applied across racial lines.

✔️ Race is a stronger predictor of reading outcomes than gender.

📘 A simple way to visualize it

Imagine (illustrative numbers, but consistent with NAEP patterns):

• White boys below basic: ~35%

• White girls below basic: ~28%

• Black boys below basic: ~60%

• Black girls below basic: ~52%

Even though boys score worse than girls within each race, the racial gap is much larger than the gender gap.

So:

• White boy: 35%

• Black girl: 52%

→ The Black girl is still far more likely to be below basic.

🎯 The key point

The statement “boys are more likely than girls to score below basic” is true only when comparing boys vs girls within the same racial group or across the entire population.